In 2020 novel coronavirus pneumonia affected the global economy. However, the PV industry in China was catching up with the flow. It has made remarkable achievements, and has maintained and continued many world first.

In 2020, China’s PV installed capacity will increase by 48.2gw, ranking first in the world for eight consecutive years; The cumulative installed capacity reached 253gw, ranking first in the world for six consecutive years; The scale of the industry continued to expand, and the four main links of the manufacturing end achieved double-digit growth. The output of polysilicon was 392000 tons, ranking first in the world for 10 consecutive years;

The output of PV modules is 124.6gw, ranking the first in the world for 14 consecutive years; The export market rose steadily, with the export volume of PV products reaching US $19.75 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. However, the export volume of solar modules reached 78.8 GW, a record high, with a year-on-year increase of 18.3%.

1. Development situation in 2020

• Recovery growth of application market

In 2020, China’s PV new and cumulative installed capacity will continue to remain the first in the world. The domestic PV new installed capacity will reach 48.2gw, the second highest in history, with a year-on-year growth of 60%. In particular, the centralized power station will increase by nearly 83%;

By the end of 2020, the cumulative installed capacity of PV grid connection will reach 253gw, with a year-on-year growth of 23.5%; The annual PV power generation was 260.5 billion kwh, with a year-on-year increase of 16.2%, accounting for 3.5% of China’s total annual power generation, with a year-on-year increase of 0.4%.

• The scale of the industry continued to expand

Despite the impact of the epidemic at the beginning of the year, the safety accident of polysilicon enterprises from July to August, the shortage of silicon supply caused by the epidemic in Xinjiang, and the black swan events such as the price rise of raw and auxiliary materials caused by the shortage of PV glass, EVA film and other supplies in July, the scale of China’s PV industry continues to expand under the promotion of domestic and foreign markets.

Among them, the output of polysilicon was 392000 tons, up 14.6% year on year; The output of solar wafers was 161.3gw, up 19.7% year on year; The output of solar cells was 134.8gw, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%; The output of solar modules is 124.6gw.

• Export of PV products increased steadily

In 2020, the total export volume of China’s PV products is about 19.75 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 5%. Among them, the export volume of silicon wafers is 1.77 billion US dollars, and the export volume is about 27GW; The export volume of battery wafers was about 9 GW, and the export volume of silicon wafers and battery wafers decreased slightly compared with the same period last year.

The export volume of components was US $16.99 billion, and the export volume was about 78.8 GW, with a year-on-year growth of 18%. With the outbreak of overseas epidemic, the expectation of overseas PV market demand declined, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of PV products in the second quarter, which is the main reason for the decline in the export volume of PV products.

At the same time, the decline of capacity utilization rate of overseas factories has led to a decline in the export volume of silicon wafers and battery wafers. However, the development of the global renewable energy market represented by PV has not been greatly affected by the epidemic situation, and continues to drive the export volume of modules up.

In terms of polysilicon import, with the substantial increase of domestic polysilicon supply and the gradual withdrawal of overseas polysilicon production capacity, in 2020, the import volume of solar grade polysilicon in China will be about 99000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 29.6%, and the import volume will be about US $900 million.

From the perspective of PV module export market, in 2020, the vitality of traditional PV module export market will not decrease, and the market share of Netherlands and Vietnam will increase significantly. Under the background of the continuous reduction of the cost of PV power generation and the EU green agreement, the European market maintains the growth momentum, and the export volume of the Netherlands, as the distribution center of the European market, continues to grow.

A new round of fit policy in Vietnam has triggered a rush to install rooftop PV in Vietnam. According to the announcement of the Ministry of industry and trade of Vietnam, the newly installed PV capacity in Vietnam will be 10.75gw in 2020, becoming the top three PV markets in the world, of which the installed PV capacity on rooftop will exceed 9gw. With the rapid increase of new installed capacity in Vietnam market, the demand for modules in China has increased significantly, becoming the second largest PV module export market. The Indian market is affected by the epidemic, and the decline of market demand is more obvious.

In Ukraine, the former emerging market, due to the decline of domestic electricity price, the income of PV projects has decreased, the investment enthusiasm has declined, and the market demand has declined. Due to the cancellation of the clean energy auction and the uncertainty of subsequent policies, the Mexican market failed to continue its previous growth momentum, and the market demand declined.

2. Development characteristics in 2020

• Further improvement of industrial concentration

In 2020, the domestic PV manufacturing enterprises, especially the leading enterprises, will speed up the pace of production expansion, and the scale of production expansion monomer will increase. With the release of these new production capacity and the rapid iteration of single crystal products and large-size products, small and medium-sized enterprises without technological and financial advantages will gradually withdraw from the market, and the industrial concentration will be further improved.

In the four links of polysilicon, silicon wafer, solar cell and solar module, the top five enterprises accounted for 87.5%, 88.1%, 53.2% and 53.2% of the total domestic output, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of more than 10 percentage points. In addition, the output scale of head enterprises has also increased significantly, and there are four enterprises with polysilicon output exceeding 50000 tons; The output of the top five enterprises in silicon wafer sector exceeds 10GW; There are 4 enterprises and 3 enterprises whose output of solar cells and solar modules exceeds 10GW respectively, and the trend of “big Evergrande” is more and more significant.

3. Development prospects in 2021

• PV will occupy half of renewable energy incremental market

According to IEA statistics, global electricity demand will drop by 2% in 2020. However, in global electricity supply, renewable energy power generation will increase by 7% and PV power generation will increase by 20%.

With the recovery of the global economy, it is estimated that the global electricity demand will increase by 3% (about 700twh) in 2021, the renewable energy installation is expected to increase by 10% compared with 2020, and the new PV installation will account for half of the new energy installation, about 54%. At present, more and more countries and regions have taken certain measures to deal with global climate change and jointly promote the “green recovery” of the world economy after the epidemic.

In addition to China, Japan, South Korea and many other countries and economies have put forward their respective goals of “carbon neutrality”. EU member states have agreed to raise the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target to 55%. Sustainable policy support and the competitiveness brought about by the declining electricity price have raised the development of renewable energy to an unprecedented strategic height, The growth rate of global PV market will accelerate.

China PV Industry Association predicts that the scale of global PV market will continue to accelerate in 2021, and the total installed capacity will reach 150-170gw, a record high. Bnef, IHS and other institutions predict that the global PV installed capacity will exceed 150gw in 2021.

• China’s PV market will enter a new stage of rapid development

2021 is the first year of the fourteenth five year plan, and also the key year for China’s PV power generation to enter the affordable grid. In 2021, China’s PV application market will continue to maintain a rapid growth momentum. It is estimated that the new installed capacity will reach 55-65gw, of which the bidding carry forward project is about 10GW, the household market is expected to reach 15gw, the industrial and commercial distribution is expected to be about 10GW, and the export and affordable ground power station is expected to be about 20-30gw.

Under the goal of “carbon peak, carbon neutral”, China’s PV market will usher in the peak of market-oriented construction during the “fourteenth five year plan”. It is estimated that the annual new PV installed capacity in China will be 70-90gw, which is expected to further accelerate China’s energy transformation.

• Large size and high power products will be released rapidly

Large scale is an important way to reduce cost and increase efficiency, which can effectively improve the efficiency of solar modules and reduce manufacturing and power generation costs. With the market’s acceptance and recognition of large-scale and high-power products, the technological transformation of superimposed old production lines, the release of production capacity of new production lines, and the accelerated matching of large-scale PV glass, backplane and film production capacity, large-scale and high-power products will enter the stage of rapid release in 2021.

It is estimated that 182mm and 210mm silicon wafers will account for about 50% in 2021. High power module products represented by 500W + and 600W + will also be introduced into the market quickly, boosting the PV market into the era of parity. The proportion of 158.75mm size will be compressed to about 5%, and 156.75mm size silicon wafer will become history.